Your first thought when you hear the names Eli Manning and Tom Brady involves some scene from a day that took place exactly 14 years ago - Groundhog Day, 2008. You might remember it better as Super Bowl XLII. If it’s not your first thought, it should be - the game is perhaps the most iconic in modern super bowl history. 18-0 Patriots, wild-card Giants, the Helmet Catch, Plaxico Burress’s game-winner.
Your second thought is probably one of the scenes 4 years later, when the impossible happened again.
Eli’s victories were undoubtedly the biggest disappointments of Tom Brady’s illustrious career.
And yet, Eli is single-handedly responsible for how we view Tom Brady today - the GOAT adorned with seven rings across his ten fingers.
As you ponder where I might be leading this idea, let me take you back to the day Eli first put the chisel to the GOAT’s Hall of Fame bust:
Draft Day 2004.
In our reality, Eli Manning warned the San Diego Chargers not to draft him with the #1 overall pick. The Chargers did wind up drafting Eli but heeded the warning and traded him to the New York Giants on draft night for Phillip Rivers.
But what if Eli hadn’t warned the Chargers? What if Eli had spent his career in San Diego?
What a fantastic question. Let’s think through it.
As we know today, after two years sitting behind Drew Brees, Phillip Rivers would take the reins in San Diego and never look back until his career was essentially over. He wound up being a gunslinger with incredible performances in the regular season and lackluster success in the playoffs.
Eli Manning was nearly the polar opposite. He started 5 games his rookie season, led the league in regular season interceptions three times, never led the league in passing yards or touchdowns, but, as long as his team scratched their way into wild-card slots, he would find a way to come through with some incredibly clutch performances against the NFC, and, in the Super Bowl, Tom Brady and the juggernaut Patriots.
If these two quarterbacks had stayed put with their original teams, I think things would have looked better for each of them - at least in the regular season.
Giants with Phillip Rivers
The Giants would have benefitted from Phillip Rivers’ consistency and ability to rally his team. Pair that with their punishing running backs and strong defense, I believe the Giants would have seen impressive regular season results. The downside would reveal itself in the playoffs, where Rivers’ lackluster play would result in other NFC rivals finding more success in the Giants’ stead.
Chargers with Eli Manning
The Chargers, on the other hand, would have still been able to put together solid regular seasons despite having Eli Manning rather than Phillip Rivers. LaDainian Tomlinson in the backfield and sure-handed Antonio Gates at tight-end would have taken some of the pressure off of Eli, resulting in far fewer interceptions and far better results going into playoff action.
That’s where it gets interesting.
We have to assume that Eli’s clutch gene would come up swinging again in those newly re-branded Chargers powder blues and maintain the same success that the Chargers actually did see in 2007. Wild Card week would see the Chargers beat the Titans, setting up a juicy date with brother Peyton in Indianapolis. The Chargers won that game and there’s no reason to believe that a hungry Eli couldn’t upset Peyton like Rivers did. That would mean a date with Tom Brady and the 17-0 Patriots.
This is where history deviates.
We already know what really happened when Eli played Tom on Groundhog Day 2008. But in our alternate reality, the two meet two weeks earlier in the AFC Championship. As fate would have it, in a stunning feat, second-year-starter Eli Manning leads the San Diego Chargers past the undefeated Patriots to reach the Super Bowl against Brett Favre’s Green Bay Packers (who were the top-seeded team in the NFC in 2007-08 before falling to the Giants). Unfortunately, with a young Eli already thinking about the statue the Chargers are going to give him and with San Diego lacking the gripping defense that led to Eli’s first title with the Giants, Favre’s Packers are the ones to eventually hoist the Lombardi.
Ripple Effects
The ripple effects from Super Bowl XLII would transform football as we know it.
With Favre winning a title, Aaron Rodgers doesn’t wind up taking over in Green Bay, and, out of pure spite, signs with the Minnesota Vikings as an in-division rival. The Vikings, with Adrian Peterson, Randy Moss, and a nasty defensive line, give Aaron Rodgers the team he needs to dominate the NFC for the foreseeable future, keeping Drew Brees, Brett Favre, Phillip Rivers and Tony Romo at bay.
Peyton, stewing from losing to his younger brother in the playoffs, vows at the family’s Christmas dinner to never lose to Eli again in the playoffs. Where Brady and Peyton Manning found themselves meeting 5 times in our reality, now Eli’s Chargers are intercepting those playoff matchups and ousting Brady before Peyton has a chance. Peyton, then, finds himself playing against little brother Eli’s Chargers in the AFC Championship game every year and, true to his word, manages to never lose to Eli again, leading to 4 consecutive Super Bowls between the Indianapolis Colts and Minnesota Vikings, who, again, are led by Aaron Rodgers.
Unfortunately for both Aaron and Minnesota, the Vikings are cursed and wind up doubling their franchise’s Super Bowl losses at the hands of the Colts.
On the flip side of that, Peyton ends up with 4 rings in 4 years - unparalleled success, accomplishing a string of years Montana never had, while passing his peer, Tom Brady, in rings. Because of that unparalleled success, when Peyton breaks his neck in 2011 (actually happened) and finds himself with nothing left to prove, he decides to hang it up.
The news shocks the NFL world, but proves to be fortuitous for some.
Aaron Rodgers, sick of losing over and over in Minnesota, decides to leave for greener pastures and requests a trade. The Colts, having just lost Peyton, decide to put together a compelling package for Aaron, who gleefully accepts, hoping to break through and finally win a ring.
The Vikings, then, thinking they can get the next best quarterback available (the only one that could truly stand up to Peyton), snag Eli away from the Chargers, who just lost LaDainian Tomlinson in a contract dispute anyways (actually happened) and anticipate a rebuild.
Bob Kraft, growing impatient with Belichick’s flat affect despite not having playoff success since 2005, decides to part ways with his long-time coach. Brady, as a result, requests a trade back to his home state of California in a pairing with the San Francisco 49ers.
Rodgers immediately thrives in Indianapolis, and the Colts look better than ever coasting past each team on the schedule. By the time the season ends, they find themselves 16-0, with a chance to do what Brady failed to do back in 2007. Meanwhile, Eli and the Vikings struggle, but manage to snag the last wild-card slot at 9-7. Brady has a resurgent year in San Francisco and leads the 49ers to the top seed in the NFC.
The playoffs prove to be a grind. The Colts have the AFC Championship against the Steelers in the bag when Joseph Addai fumbles at the one yard-line and the Steelers nearly return it for a touchdown. Aaron Rodgers makes a clutch shoestring tackle at midfield to save the season and the Colts manage to make it to the Super Bowl at 18-0. Eli and the wild card Vikings somehow make their way through the playoffs on the road, knocking off Rivers’ Giants and former mentor Brees’s Saints, and meet Brady and the #1 49ers in San Francisco in the NFC Championship. In an unlikely turn of events, the Vikings knock off the 49ers in overtime to secure a 5th straight meeting between the Vikings and Colts in the Super Bowl.
The Super Bowl is a close, low-scoring affair, with neither offense able to find any rhythm. It looks like Dwight Freeney will end the game with a sack of Eli, but wait! Eli escapes, he launches downfield…Randy Moss jumps up…did he catch that on his helmet?! Eli and the Vikings pull off the upset 17-14, breaking the curse, giving the Vikings their first ever Super Bowl win, ruining the Colts’ chance at a 19-0 season and sending Aaron Rodgers reeling down a dark path. Aaron never plays football again, but the occasional BuzzFeed article pops up with a clip of Aaron’s latest podcast discussion on whether the earth is flat and if Fight Club is actually a documentary.
In this alternate reality, Eli ends his career with 2 rings and not quite as many interceptions, but still with a son named Tom Brady.
Brady decides to finish his career at the old age of 38 with the 3 rings he had before Eli became a starter because Gisele has been asking him to retire since 35 and he determines their marriage is more valuable than playing for another ring since he knows he can’t beat Eli anyways. Peyton ends with 4 rings, but his rings are considered weightier than Montana’s 5 because they happened in succession - the Michael Jordan “highest peak” argument. The Mannings are forever considered NFL royalty and decide to host alternative broadcasts of NFL games on ESPN 2. Eli even uses his gravitas to do something nice for San Diego since he never brought them a title and lobbies to keep them from moving to L.A. The Chargers give him the statue he always wanted as a thank you.
Oh, and Phillip Rivers? He and Tom Coughlin get so heated and red in the face with each other that Phillip’s “gosh-darn-it”s became too plentiful. He worries his 14 children will start seeing a bad-role-model version of their dad. Since he needs the income to support his family and the new set of twins that are due any day, he decides to end his career playing for the Colts, who are looking to maintain relevance after the disappearance of Aaron Rodgers.
Some things are just meant to be.
Amongst the storylines of the ensemble cast found in my day-dreaming brain, you may have forgotten why we are here.
Ah, yes - that’s right: So, how did Eli Manning help Brady become the GOAT? By requesting to be traded on draft night to make sure he only played Brady twice in the playoffs.
I need a nap.